Intuition

As an economist, I always await all the major economic data that is released on a regular weekly or monthly or yearly basis. I always look for the more positive signs of economic growth and prosperity, and I worry when the signs reflect weaknesses or areas of concern. But what if I didn't have access to all this data? Could I still tell what was and was not happening? Would I be reduced to visiting a fortune teller on a regular basis? Or isn't this in the cards for me?

For broad trends (as opposed to very nuanced happenings), I would rely on observation and intuition and I would expect to be more right than wrong. This holiday season was especially telling for me. More than a few times the line of cars from the highway to the largest mall in the area stretched back a full exit on the highway. Putting a value on my time, I doubt I would be willing to join this car cavalcade but more cars /people were on line and I believe that translated into more sales. Another example took place late on the night before Christmas Eve. My older daughter needed to finish her shopping and so she asked me to drive her to the nearest major department store. I grimaced and reluctantly agreed. Since it was already late at night, the store was not that full but more importantly you could see areas where there were clearly some shortages of desirable merchandise. Good lesson for my daughter but also a small positive indication regarding the economy.

My family and I spent the holiday break in a nice warm climate. Part of the allure of visiting this area is visiting our favorite restaurants and here too there were positive signs. The restaurants were packed so much so that I was glad I had made the reservations months ago. Easily more packed than the past year or the year before or even the year before that. The same for the hotel we stayed at. For much of the holiday break period, the hotel was at 100 percent occupancy, which also wasn't the case in previous years. From observation, both travel and retail sales looked more robust to me.

I'm glad to have both economic performance data and empirical data readily available. Statistics are enormously important but empirical data with a dose of intuition for me is another helpful dynamic way of assessing where we are. Thinking back to the recent holiday seasons, I am thankful for the progress that has been made and the signs that are clearly visible.

Leaving the Comfort Zone

Last Saturday, I took my older daughter and her best friend to a performance of Nearly Lear at New York’s New Victory Theater.  The show stars Susanna Hamnett as the Fool.  She also plays every other role in this adaptation of the Shakespeare tragedy and she and Edith Tankus wrote the play besides.  I am a major fan of the work done by the New Victory and have been taking my kids to shows there regularly for the last ten years, but I really hesitated to buy tickets to this show.  I first read King Lear in high school and have seen it performed multiple times.  Tragedies are not my favorite form of entertainment even when the story is brilliantly developed as it is in King Lear.  And for a Saturday excursion with my daughter and her friend, something upbeat tends to create a more upbeat mood and a more fun day. I was going to the show but clearly this was outside of my comfort zone.

Susanna Hamnett was terrific. The show was terrific and with good humor and great talent Ms. Hamnett told the tale from beginning to end playing the Fool, King Lear, Cordelia, Regan, Goneril, and various other parts. Everyone died on schedule but we all laughed throughout.  And this adaptation served to remind me of the mastery present throughout Shakespeare’s work.

Unrelated to Shakespeare, King Lear, or Nearly Lear, I was at a lunch at the beginning this week where one of the participants was a very sophisticated high tech person.  During the conversation, she mentioned that when she found software or hardware that she liked or was helpful to her, she stayed with that product. And she completed the thought by saying she preferred to stay in her comfort zone. And to some extent we all do.  I took my time to make the switch from a blackboard/whiteboard with overhead slides to PowerPoint.  Now I couldn’t even tell you why I hesitated other than I was in my comfort zone.  Human nature prevails.

Higher education is being challenged as never before.  In a weakened economy, there are fewer family resources as well as less government and philanthropic support.  But economies improve and we will in time weather that challenge.  More serious, on-line delivery of education and/or for-profit companies providing education plus more international competition have turned our industry upside down and their presence will not diminish over time.  Business as usual may be our comfort zone but it isn’t our future.  As I have said for a number of years, we need to change, maintaining our quality and our integrity and responding assertively and expeditiously to these changing times.  The last thing we want is to have our industry described the same way we describe the King Lear story.