Weather and Admissions

A few weeks ago, I met a good friend for dinner. It was in between snow storms and I vividly remember how slippery the restaurant parking lot was. Once I got into the restaurant, a few minutes before my friend arrived, I was one of only two customers in this large restaurant. And almost as soon as my friend arrived, the other person left. We had the restaurant to ourselves. In this terrible winter in the northeast, having restaurants almost empty - even during normally busy times - has become the norm rather than the exception. Clearly, many businesses suffered. In fact there was a front page story in USA Today on February 17th that talked about how the "Brutal Winter Stymies Shipping," specifically how stalled shipments have had a negative "ripple" effect on the economy. The impact on the airlines was also widely reported with 75,000 canceled flights since December 1st.

It's not hard to identify areas of the economy that falter when the weather impacts day to day activities in a significant way. Hurricane Sandy had that impact; the recent snow storms provide another significant example. It is also not hard to identify sectors of the economy that do better when the fury of nature makes itself felt. Snow blower sales have, I am sure, been impressive. And snow melting salt sales have without question exceeded virtually all expectations. Teenagers have also done well shoveling driveways. But what about colleges' admissions, both undergraduate as well as graduate?

Many of us work with sophisticated econometric admissions prediction models. These simulation models include more and more variables and more and more and more data. The models predict the future based on the past and the more things remain as they had been, the more likely the simulations are accurate. But what happens when the weather is far worse than the previous years? Do fewer families visit campuses? Do fewer students decide to go to colleges and universities in the hard hit areas? Both New Orleans and the Hurricane Sandy impact areas seem to suggest that weather challenges may not necessarily adversely impact admissions. Even if initial visits to the campus are down, admissions can be fine. I think this rough winter will also not adversely impact admissions. I am hoping there will not be a weather related transfer effect but we won't know the reality until sometime in the summer. On the graduate level, where many students work full time as well as pursue an advanced degree, I think there will be an effect that favors hybrid and online programs.

So for anyone who believes that their simulation model will be an accurate predictor, please remember that there is so much not under our control that a model's accuracy always is somewhat uncertain. Hopefully, however, when there are surprises, more will be positive than negative.

Because of the Bad Weather Just After New Year’s Day

Because of the bad weather just after New Year’s Day, we spent three days trying to get back from Hawaii. The trip to Hawaii was wonderfully restful; the return trip beginning the Friday after New Year’s Day was not a positive experience. Three years ago, bad weather stranded us at Newark airport for two days and we never made it to Hawaii; this time I was wondering when we would get back to New York.

Being stranded in Hawaii can really not be considered a negative. Being stranded in the Portland and Minneapolis airports doesn’t have the same tropical feel. Our return trip from Hawaii had as its only scheduled stop, a change of planes in Portland. Shortly before we arrived in Portland, the connecting flight to New York was canceled because of bad weather airport conditions at JFK. The snow had stopped a day earlier but JFK was having continuing problems which seemed to affect some airlines more than others. Now, we all understand that delays can happen; however, the fact that it took three hours trying to find an airline representative to talk to, including standing on a long line before we could get any rerouting help is not my idea of good customer service. There wasn’t even an airline representative at the gate when we disembarked in Portland, though many passengers were affected.

The initial rerouting had us staying in Portland from late Friday until Tuesday. I followed up with the airline on the phone (an 8 hour experience from start to finish) and we were given an alternative where we would arrive in Philadelphia on Sunday evening. The alternative involved flying from Portland to Minneapolis and subsequently flying from Minneapolis to Philadelphia, at which point I would rent a car to drive back to New York. We made it almost on time to Minneapolis and prepared to embark on the flight to Philadelphia. Minneapolis at the time had a temperature of -10 Fahrenheit and we had no clothes that would keep us warm or semi-warm if we needed to go outside. Somehow a sweatshirt really doesn’t serve the purpose when the climate is in negative numbers.

Getting onto the plane in Minneapolis took 3 hours longer than we expected, and then the surprise happened. The bathroom water lines had frozen and first needed to be thawed before we could take off. It never happened. First we just sat on the plane for an additional hour; then we were asked to leave the plane so that the temperature in the plane could be increased as much as possible. Another two hours later and there was the announcement that this hadn’t worked, and that another plane would soon be available. Two hours later we were able to get onto the replacement plane. And more than seven hours later than originally scheduled, we landed in Philadelphia. Add another 30 minutes waiting for the luggage, and at 12:40 AM we were set to leave the airport. Now, a snow storm is clearly an act of god and not under the control of the airlines; however, letting water lines freeze at -10 degrees is clearly a mistake of the airline. They had to know that subzero temperatures impacts water. And yet there were no consequences for the airline.

Because we landed so late in Philadelphia and it was very foggy besides, we didn’t try to drive to New York in the middle of the night. We rented a car, stopped at a local hotel, and the next morning after breakfast drove to New York.

Safety needs to come first in air travel and I would never argue that a flight should take place if that safety would be compromised. But in a difficult situation, the absence of customer service makes the situation all the worse. The lack of airline agent support in Portland, the lack of proper plane preparation in Minneapolis made a difficult situation much more unpleasant and ultimately more costly and time consuming. Shouldn’t more of this burden be carried by the airlines? And I know that some airlines did better than others. Those that did better, and the airports that did better, should be recognized and those that didn’t should face the consequences. Outcomes assessment has an important role outside as well as inside of education.

Sandy

It is now Monday morning and we are resuming classes today.  The campus has been very fortunate.  Our loss of power was limited and of short duration and the campus damage was mostly limited to trees with very little other damage.  Long Island’s damage was extensive with reports of 100,000 homes lost and almost 300,000 homes still without power 5 days later.  The devastation on the north shore and south shore of the Island was massive.  Lights are still out at key intersections, gas lines at those few stations that are open are often 100 cars long.  Mass transit is returning but still disrupted and we are now hearing reports of a nor’easter by the middle of this week. Recovery will take a long time.  Adjusting to the return of heat and hot water at home, once it arrives again, will not take a long time. Instantaneous is exactly how long it will take me to adjust and to be thankful for this one important step toward normalcy. For many of my colleagues a return to normalcy, given the significant property devastation, will be much more difficult.

Closing for the week has made sense.  Given everything that members of our community have been through we could not have held classes this week.  Even the commute has become much more difficult and much riskier.  Our president has reached out to all members of the community in an effort to provide and coordinate support for those members of our community with the greatest need.  The outreach is very much needed. And to the credit of the community, we have already had offers of support from all constituencies but more support is needed and coordination is key to having the help available go to those with the greatest need.

We need to make up for the lost time in class and I know we can determine ways to do so effectively so that the learning that should take place in a course does in fact take place.  But there can be no one approach that will meet the needs of all our faculty and all our students and flexibility on all parts is essential.  Some faculty and students (as well as administrators and staff) have lost their homes; some have lost their computers as well as key books and papers; others have no phone or internet access; and with the shortage of gas and the limits of mass transit, some members of our community will not be able to get here.  In some cases, all of the above applies and the hardships are multiple and formidable.

In my role as a school board member, I have already heard from the superintendent that he expects to open schools today after also having been closed for the week.  Many of the kids in our district will be going to school, even though they still have no power at home and their sense of normalcy seems seriously compromised..  Here too we need to be flexible and recognize that many  kids have felt the trauma in their lives that we all work so hard to shield them from.  I know the life lesson is important and so is the message regarding the importance of resuming education ASAP. I fully support the schools reopening quickly  and I am sure that the community feels equally supportive.

In a difficult time, what members of the community do makes all the difference. We can’t waive away the devastation; we can’t just turn the power  on; and we can’t just instantly return to normal.  We can do the best we can to make a positive difference and to cope with adversity. I see more and more instances of members of our community doing what needs to be done and I am thankful for their good work.   And at the end of the day it will be the resilience of people that once again makes the difference (as it has before in so many tragedies around the globe) and allows us to move forward.

Weather and Politics

Two weeks ago we traveled to Colorado for a family wedding.  The wedding was beautiful and I also appreciated the fact that this was an academic love story in every way.  The bride (my niece) who holds a Master’s in Math and the groom who has a Ph.D. in Math fell in love in graduate school and their love of math was an important catalyst.  What a beautiful story and it all added up to a wedding to be followed now by an increasing number of anniversaries.

While the wedding was beautiful, the weather was memorable. After we arrived, picked up our rental car, and began the journey from Denver to Greeley, lightening appeared in the distant sky.  Relatively muted at first, it quickly evolved into very prominent cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightening.  The effect was highlighted by a series of unlit roads and dark open fields.  And then it happened.  The lightening continued but now was accompanied by heavy hail.  Yes, summertime hail, which became noisier and noisier and heavier and heavier. In those few times in the past when I was driving in a winter hail storm in the New York area, I never remember any storm that had the intensity of this one.  My older daughter was sitting next to me in the front seat following the navigation system which was clearly our lifeline since the visibility for almost 30 minutes was at most a few feet. And all of us in the car were very tense and apprehensive as we drove to our destination and we did keep driving since there were very few and very far between places on these rural roads where you could safely stop.  Even when we got to the hotel, we still stayed in the car for an additional 15 minutes just to give the lightening time to move away and then allow us to safely enter the hotel.

The next day, Friday, there was a rehearsal and a dinner and on Saturday the wedding took place.  The weather was clear, hot and very dry.  Not comfortable but nothing to worry about.  Except we could see from the wedding site, what appeared to be a fire far in the distance. On Sunday, our last day in the Denver area, we decided to drive to Fort Collins to spend time in a nice college town.  As we drove closer to Fort Collins, we could see the fire more clearly and the smoke and smell were now permeating the entire area. When I was able to see the flames first hand, I could see the enormity of the event and get a clear sense of the toll it was enacting on the area. The fire was caused, according to the news reports by lightening that struck during the Thursday night storm.

Today, a little over a week since the fire began, it continues and the devastation it causes continues as well.  On the news this morning, a story on the fire noted that more than 180 homes were lost and also noted, unfortunately, that the fire was continuing.

As I think about the hail storm and the resulting fire, I also think about the November elections which are now less than 5 months away. So many candidates are talking about cutting spending and cutting taxes.  The candidates seem very specific on how and they would cut taxes for everyone and much less specific on how spending would be cut. There is no question that some government inefficiency exists, but not nearly enough to compensate for the tax cuts being proposed by some office seekers.  Let the candidates talk openly about how they will cut costs—will it be a reduction in spending for weather related research, for fire prevention and firefighting, for national defense, for education, for cancer research etc. And let them talk precisely about why taxes need to be cut for everyone.  Give the public the specifics and let’s see whether they think the math adds up to what best serves our country.

The Holiday Break

I really look forward to the December holiday break.  Though the University is always prepared and staffed if any emergency arises, all offices (with the exception of admissions and public safety) are closed from just before Christmas to just after New Year’s Day.  Emails decline precipitously during this time but fortunately I have no trouble adjusting to this change in volume.  I use this time period to just relax and recharge and get ready for the January session and the spring semester. Not unlike so many previous December holiday breaks, we were all set to go to Hawaii where my mother-in-law lives and spend time with her and also with my wife’s sister.  We had our airline tickets, we had rented a beautiful house, and even had restaurant reservations set (including at the same Asian restaurant just frequented by President Obama and his family). We were fully packed and certainly well prepared.   I had multiple books and magazines to read. And then the weather forecast became more ominous.

By Saturday night, it was clear this was no ordinary or minor winter storm.  More and more frequently the weather forecasts mentioned blizzard, gale force winds, heavy accumulation, white out conditions and other terms that hardly seem compatible with a trip to Hawaii.  Not to worry, our flight was scheduled for Monday afternoon and we decided to go to Newark airport on Sunday so that we would be all set for the Monday flight without the concern about getting to Newark immediately after a major storm.    We felt the night at a Newark airport motel was good insurance for a much desired trip to Hawaii.  By early Sunday morning, the snow had stopped, some sun had appeared, and the clean up was well underway.  And by late morning we were also underway to the airport.  We were very optimistic and as I had mentioned earlier, we had prepared well.

It took over two hours for us to check our luggage.  So many flights had been canceled, so many individuals needed to make other arrangements, that the check in line moved at a snail’s pace and even that might be an overly optimistic assessment of the speed.  Our plane was still scheduled to go, but the departure time was changed from 1:30 to 3:30 PM.  Certainly understandable.   And then the departure time was changed to 4:30, then to 5:30, then to 6:30, then to 7:30, then 8, then 9, then 10, then 11PM…and then the flight was canceled.  What now?  Well there are no available seats in any airplanes going to Hawaii until either December 31 or January 1^st.  And since we were scheduled to fly back on January 3^rd, departing on the 31^st or the 1^st on an eleven hour flight for a two day stay is not anyone’s idea of a good time.  So we agreed to be ticketed on standby for the flight on Tuesday.  The flight is again scheduled at 1:30 and postponed to 3:45, and at 3:30 the standby names are called.  As it turns out some of us can get on the flight but not the entire family; we therefore decide not to go.  So after spending 13+ hours at the airport on Monday and 5 hours on Tuesday (and two nights at airport motels) we are heading back home.  Our luggage, by the way, was placed on the flight to Hawaii so at least our clothes are experiencing the aloha feeling.

We stop at a diner on the way home, have our first real meal in two days, and arrive home tired by still determined to make the best out of the remainder of the week.  I turn up the heat (which I turned down when we left) and we settle in.  The temperature slowly rises and then stops rising and stops working.  Not only aren’t we in Hawaii, we are in a very cold house in New York.  We go to sleep and wake up in a chilly 58 degree bedroom.  We call our HVAC contractor immediately; he comes that morning and the heat is back on within 30 minutes.  The contractor leaves, the heat stops working shortly thereafter, and it takes until the next morning for the contractor to make a return visit.  The week between Christmas and New Year’s is 80% over and we are just starting to get comfortable again.

After a good vacation in Hawaii, I am always ready and excited about going back to work.  Interestingly enough,  I certainly have that same feeling after this “vacation.”

A Real Snow Job

My kids love the snow.  They can’t wait to have another snow storm after which they will spend hours snowboarding and just return home for periodic snacks and meals.  My feelings are not quite as positive.  I love the beauty of newly fallen snow; I hate driving in it, walking in it, and I equally hate the after snow clean up of my walkway and driveway.  The more snow, often the greater the beauty and inevitably the greater the hatred.